The Chicago White Sox are tumbling toward the modern record for the most losses in Major League Baseball history. If their current win percentage holds, they’ll “beat” the 1962 New York Mets by four losses and take over that ignominious mantle. That’s already had ramifications for players and staff on the current team … but this futility also affects baseball around them. As balanced as baseball tries to make the schedule, the luck of the draw comes into play during the last seven weeks of the year. Some teams (and starters) get to circle the White Sox on their schedule. Some don’t.
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What is the difference between having a .500 team in a three-game series and having the White Sox on the schedule this year? Because there haven’t been a lot of teams that have been as bad as the White Sox, we don’t have a ton of empirical data, but if we give them a .260 winning percentage instead of the .235 they’re sporting now, we can make this comparison looking at historical trends for these matchups. Let’s use a team like the Boston Red Sox, with a nice, neat .540 winning percentage to start the day Friday, to show how much the White Sox could change a three-game series:
• Against a .500 team, Boston would expect to win 1.60 games.
• Against a .400 team, Boston would expect to win 1.84 games.
• Against a .260 team, Boston would expect to win 2.32 games.
You could round all these to two wins out of three, sure. But you might also notice that the difference between facing a .500 team and facing the White Sox is likely to be more than half an expected win. If that turns into one win, that could be everything for a playoff team! As of Thursday morning, here are FanGraphs’ end-of-season projections in the National League wild-card race:
• San Diego Padres 88-74
• Arizona Diamondbacks 88-74
• Atlanta Braves 87-75
• New York Mets 85-77
• St. Louis Cardinals 83-79
Over in the American League, the Red Sox would be the third wild card with an 86-76 end-of-season projection and the Seattle Mariners would be out with an 84-78 projection. By projections, there isn’t a race that will get decided by facing the White Sox alone, but it’s also clear that an extra real-life, non-projected win could flip a team into or out of the playoffs.
Danny Jansen’s new team is in the thick of the wild-card race. (Jay Biggerstaff / USA Today)
Teams on the bubble that get the White Sox down the stretch include the Red Sox, the Mets, and — perhaps most notably — the Padres in late September. The Houston Astros get to face the White Sox, as do the Red Sox. The Mariners get the Yankees, and that’s baked into the projections that say the Astros will take the division and the Red Sox get into the playoffs. The schedule giveth, and it taketh away.
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In the end, the games still need to be played, and the teams still need to win their games against the White Sox. Teams like the White Sox (maybe not quite as bad) have played spoiler in the past, and the Padres, Red Sox, and Mets can’t just circle three wins in the calendar.
There are a few starting pitchers on the bubble who will also see some favorable schedules coming up and may see some matchups that will benefit them and their real-life teams, as well as the fantasy teams they’re on.
Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs (at CHW on Friday, TOR, DET, at PIT, PIT)
Taillon has been a steady pitcher for the Cubs this year, and his worst start of the season was against the Reds in that tough park of theirs. Otherwise, he’s only given up more than three runs once this season … against the White Sox! Oh no! Generally, though, this is a good schedule for the righty. All of these teams have below-average offenses and in some cases terrible offenses. Whatever you think of his strikeout rate (not great!) or stuff (the fastballs aren’t amazing!), it doesn’t get much better in terms of matchups.
Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks (COL, at MIA, NYM, LAD)
Will the Diamondbacks keep a six-man rotation going this long? If so, that means that Rodriguez won’t start two games in one week, most likely. If not, this schedule may not hold and he could get the Red Sox instead of missing them. And that could be a huge deal with the stuff Rodriguez displayed in his first start back. Sitting 91.4 mph on the fastball — a full tick down from last year — and striking out one in 5 2/3 innings makes him seem more like a matchups guy than one you depend on.
Hayden Birdsong, San Francisco Giants (DET, at OAK, at SEA, at MIL)
Birdsong is wild, and his fastball may not have great shape, but he has two or three really good secondaries and at least a three-start run in front of him where he’s pitching in good parks against mediocre offenses. Seattle, in particular, augments strikeouts in a way that makes him more attractive. Maybe he’ll even build up enough confidence to shine in that Brewers matchup that’s in a tougher park.
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Joey Estes, Oakland A’s (at NYM, TBR, MIL, at TEX)
A new way of looking at command just came out, and Joey Estes was top-10 in the big leagues through that lens. He confirmed that command was a big part of his game ever since the Braves showed him how batters fare depending on the count, especially since he’s only sitting around 92 these days. His schedule isn’t a slam dunk, nor is the stuff, but at least the parks are favorable.
Bowden Francis, Toronto Blue Jays (at LAA, at CHC, LAA, at BOS)
The split-finger appears to be a legit pitch now, and he’s on the schedule with at least a decent three-start runway. He should be available in most leagues, too.
(Photo of Andrew Vaughn: D. Ross Cameron / USA Today)
Eno Sarris is a senior writer covering baseball analytics at The Athletic. Eno has written for FanGraphs, ESPN, Fox, MLB.com, SB Nation and others. Submit mailbag questions to esarris@theathletic.com. Follow Eno on Twitter @enosarris
